Warranty claim forecasting based on

نویسندگان

  • Artur Akbarov
  • Shaomin Wu
چکیده

5 Warranty claims reported in recent months might carry more up-to-date information than 6 those reported in earlier months. Using weighted maximum likelihood estimation for esti7 mating model parameters might therefore lead to better performance of warranty forecast8 ing models than maximum likelihood estimation. This paper examines this issue and also 9 presents comparison of the forecasting performance of the parametric models such as Poisson 10 processes and ARIMA models and non-parametric models such as artificial neural networks. 11 It shows that mixed non-homogenous Poisson process models can lead to better forecasting 12 results than other competing methods. The paper also shows that the models built with 13 the weighted maximum likelihood estimation yield smaller error than those based on the 14 maximum likelihood estimation. 15

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تاریخ انتشار 2014